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P值的大小代表了在假设检验中观察到的样本数据与原假设一致的概率。当P值越小时,意味着观察到的数据在假设下出现的可能性较小,使得我们越有理由拒绝原假设,接受备择假设。相反,当P值较大时,则意味着观察到的数据在假设下出现的可能性较大,我们没有足够的证据来拒绝原假设。通常,当P值小于0.05时,我们通常会选择拒绝原假设。因此,P值的大小在统计推断中具有重要的意义,可以帮助我们判断样本数据对原假设的支持程度,从而做出合理的统计推断。
统计问题(26):
当卫生局在一个社区进行了基于团队策略的麻腮风(麻疹,腮腺炎,风疹)疫苗的推广。结果发现,接种率在两年内有所提高,与两年前相比具有统计学意义,单侧P值小于0.01。关于P值对本研究结果的意义,下面哪一项说法是正确的?
Question
Whenahealth authority introduced a new community based vaccine promotion team,vaccination rates for the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine improved over the next two years. The improvement was statistically significant, with a onesided P valueof less than 0.01. Which of the following, if any, are true?a) Confounding is unlikely because of the low P valueb) Ifthe vaccination rates were varying randomly over time thenthe probability of a result like this or better would be less than 1 in 100c) The difference in vaccination ratesislikely tobe importantd) The teamapproach can be recommended as better than the old approachAnswer
TheP value assesses only the play of chance and gives no information aboutbias or confounding. The importance of the result depends on a clinical judgment of the effect of the absolute magnitude of the change in vaccination rates. This is not reported in the question and is only one component of the calculation of the P value, the others being sample size and standard deviation. The decision to recommend one approach over another should include several other considerations, such as benefit, harm, acceptability, and costs. Answer b is a fair representation of what the P value describes.中文解释:
P值仅评估机会大小,不提供有关偏倚或混杂的信息。
结果的重要性取决于对疫苗接种率变化的绝对幅度的影响的临床判断。P值仅仅是一份报告的一部分结果,其它比如样本大小和标准差也应该报告出来。
是否推荐一种方法,还应包括其他一些考虑因素,例如收益,损害,可接受性和成本等
所以答案是选择 B
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